China to keep monetary policy stable（中國將保持穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策）

　　China to keep monetary policy stable

　　July main inflation barometer up 2.7% year-on-year; high pork prices to blame

　　By OUYANG SHIJIA

　　China will likely keep its monetary policy stable and on target in the second half as consumer inflation is expected to rise mildly within a reasonable range in the rest of the year, experts said.

　　Their comments came as China's consumer inflation accelerated to the highest level in two years, largely driven by surging pork prices, but it still managed to come in weaker than expected in July.

　　China's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in July, following a 2.5 percent rise in the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

　　The growth in core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is deemed as a better gauge of the supply-demand relationship in the economy, came in at 0.8 percent year-on-year in July, following a 1 percent rise the previous month.

　　Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said the rise in July CPI was largely due to soaring pork prices as some producers were reluctant to sell hogs ready for the market.

　　Looking ahead, Zheng expects consumer prices may fluctuate in August, and the rise in CPI may struggle to surpass 3 percent year-on-year during the month.

　　Compared with soaring prices in other major economies, China's overall price levels are generally stable. Inflation hit a 40-year high in June in the United States, as the consumer price index rose 9.1 percent year-on-year, said the US Department of Labor.??

　　Tommy Wu, lead economist at Oxford Economics, a think tank, said the spillover effect of rising global food prices on China's domestic food costs will also likely be modest, given China's self-sufficiency in staple grains in the near term.

　　With limited pass-through of factory-gate inflation and energy prices on consumer prices and subdued core inflation due to weak domestic demand, Wu said his team expects China's consumer inflation to remain below the 3 percent target for 2022.

　　Against such a backdrop, he said monetary easing will remain targeted to support credit to small and medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure financing.

　　A report released on Wednesday by the People's Bank of China said China may face mounting inflationary pressure at home due to factors including a recovery in consumer demand, rising pork prices and high energy and raw material costs, and imported inflationary pressures will continue to exist.

　　Looking into the second half, the nation's central bank said China's consumer inflation will rise at a faster pace than the level in the first half, and the CPI rise may exceed 3 percent in some months.

　　According to the report, China will continue to keep prudent monetary policy and refrain from adopting a deluge of strong stimulus policies. And it will keep an eye on the inflation situation both at home and abroad.??

　　Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said the country's economy is gradually rebounding amid recovering market demand, as many sectors included in core CPI jumped on a monthly basis.

　　For instance, NBS data showed prices of plane tickets, hotel accommodations and tourism increased by 6.1 percent, 5 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, in July on a monthly basis.?

　　Even though China is facing inflationary pressure from soaring pork prices in the coming months, Wen said the government's recent moves to stabilize supplies and prices will help ensure market orderliness.

　　As for the rest of the year, he said his team expects the CPI to rise modestly and the producer price index to continue to trend down, which will not put extra pressure on monetary policy easing.

　　According to the NBS, China's PPI, which gauges factory-gate prices, increased 4.2 percent year-on-year in July after a 6.1 percent rise in June, cooling to the lowest level since February 2021. On a monthly basis, the PPI declined 1.3 percent in July.?

　　Yin Yue, a macroeconomics analyst at Shanghai-listed Hongta Securities, agreed that inflation will not put much pressure on China's monetary easing, especially considering the relatively low core CPI level and the slowdown in PPI growth.?

　　Looking ahead, Feng Mohan, a macroeconomics researcher at Beijing FOST Economic Consulting Co Ltd, said he will not rule out the possibility that the PPI will decline in the second half amid weakening global demand, a gloomy global outlook and a high base effect from the previous year.

　　中文譯稿：

　　中國將保持穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策

　　受豬肉漲價因素影響，7月份CPI同比上漲2.7%

　　中國日報記者歐陽詩嘉

　　專家指出，下半年中國通貨膨脹水平有望在合理區(qū)間內(nèi)溫和上升，穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策將持續(xù)精準有力。

　　他們發(fā)表上述言論之際，中國通脹上升到了兩年以來的最高水平，很大程度上是受到豬肉價格上漲的影響，但是通脹水平仍控制在7月的預期值以內(nèi)。

　　國家統(tǒng)計局周三發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，7月份，衡量通脹的主要指標全國居民消費價格指數(shù)（CPI）同比上漲2.7%，而6月份的CPI同比上漲2.5%。

　　7月份，核心CPI同比上漲0.8%，而上月同比上漲1.0%。核心CPI不包括波動性較大的食品和能源價格，被認為是衡量經(jīng)濟供需關系的更好指標。

　　英大證券研究所所長鄭后成表示，在前期企業(yè)壓欄惜售以及二次育肥推遲出欄的背景下，豬肉價格大幅上行，對7月CPI同比上漲形成拉動。

　　展望未來，鄭后成預計，8月CPI當月同比大概率在7月的基礎上震蕩，破“3”概率較低。

　　與其他主要經(jīng)濟體的物價普遍大漲相比，中國的物價總體保持穩(wěn)定。美國勞工部的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國6月份通脹率升至9.1%，創(chuàng)40年來新高。

　　牛津經(jīng)濟研究院高級經(jīng)濟學家胡東安認為，考慮到中國主糧短期內(nèi)能自給自足，國際市場糧食價格的上漲對中國糧價的溢出效應是有限的。

　　胡東安稱，由于工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠價格以及能源價格上漲對國內(nèi)物價的傳導影響有限，再加上國內(nèi)需求不旺對核心CPI的抑制作用，他的團隊預期2022年中國通脹率將保持在3%的目標值以內(nèi)。

　　在這樣的背景下，胡東安表示中國將會保持精準有力的貨幣政策，為中小企業(yè)、制造業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)和基建融資提供信貸支持。

　　中國人民銀行周三發(fā)布的報告指出，下一階段，受消費需求復蘇回暖、新一輪豬肉價格上漲周期開啟、能源和原材料成本仍處高位等因素影響，國內(nèi)結(jié)構性通脹壓力可能加大，輸入性通脹壓力依然存在。

　　展望下半年，人民銀行指出，預計CPI漲幅將有所上行，中樞較上半年水平抬升，一些月份漲幅可能階段性突破3%。

　　央行報告指出，下一階段貨幣政策將堅持穩(wěn)健取向，堅持不搞“大水漫灌”、 不超發(fā)貨幣，同時密切關注國內(nèi)外通脹形勢變化。

　　中國民生銀行首席經(jīng)濟學家溫彬指出，核心CPI多行業(yè)環(huán)比上漲，反映實體需求溫和復蘇，中國經(jīng)濟正在逐步回升。

　　舉例而言，國家統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)顯示，?7月份飛機票、賓館住宿和旅游價格環(huán)比分別上漲6.1%、5.0%和3.5%。

　　溫彬稱，盡管隨著豬肉價格進入回升周期后，未來數(shù)月中國通脹面對的壓力也在上升，但是政府近期保供穩(wěn)價的系列舉措將有助于保證市場穩(wěn)定。

　　溫彬指出，他的團隊預期未來CPI將溫和上升，同時，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠價格指數(shù)將繼續(xù)保持連續(xù)回落態(tài)勢，通脹對貨幣政策不構成較大壓力。

　　國家統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)顯示，7月份全國工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠價格指數(shù)(PPI)同比上漲4.2%，環(huán)比下降1.3%，已降至2021年3月以來的最低水平。而6月份PPI同比上漲6.1%。PPI是衡量工業(yè)企業(yè)產(chǎn)品出廠價格變動趨勢和變動程度的指數(shù)。

　　紅塔證券宏觀分析師殷越也認為，市場不用太擔心物價上行會對當前貨幣政策形成掣肘，尤其是考慮到核心CPI還較低，PPI同比后續(xù)還會下行。

　　展望未來，北京福盛德咨詢宏觀經(jīng)濟研究員馮默涵表示，全球需求走弱導致快速進入衰退的可能性比較大，而且面對去年同期高基數(shù)的效應，他不排除PPI下半年轉(zhuǎn)負的可能性。