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US administration's smash and grab of TikTok will not be taken lying down
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After vowing to ban the popular short-video sharing app TikTok in the United States on Friday, the White House is reportedly weighing the advantages of allowing Microsoft to purchase its US operations.
Such shilly-shallying is a tactic the US administration employed during the trade deal negotiations with China.
The tactic involves the White House promising punishment for some perceived wrongdoing, followed by indications from other administration officials that the punishment might not be forthcoming. This is followed soon after by some close to the president saying that he intends to make good on his threat, sparking a sharp rise in tensions again. All with the aim of getting what the US administration wants.
So it was par for the course that after the ban on TikTok was proposed and then left hanging, that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the media on Sunday morning that the president "will take action in the coming days with respect to a broad array of national security risks that are presented by software connected to the Chinese Communist Party".
Although it is yet to be known how that will work, the message will certainly heighten the concerns of Chinese companies.
As TikTok's experience shows, no matter how unfounded the claims against them are, as long as they remain Chinese companies, they will be presented as being a "Red threat" by the administration. That being said, selling its US operations to Microsoft might be preferable for ByteDance, Tik-Tok's parent company in China, as it is working "for the best outcome". And that being the case, the top US diplomat's comments on Sunday were tantamount to inviting potential US purchasers to participate in an officially sanctioned "steal" of Chinese technology.
Washington is well aware that Beijing will be cautious about retaliating like-for-like as it values foreign investment in China, and the sizable US investment in China is of more importance to the Chinese economy than the much smaller and shrinking Chinese investment is to the US economy.
Also, there is the additional bonus that coercing Chinese companies to divest their US business to US enterprises will not incur job losses.
The US administration's bullying of Chinese tech companies stems from data being the new source of wealth and its zero-sum vision of "American first". With competitiveness now dependent on the ability to collect and use data, it offers an either-or choice of submission or mortal combat in the tech realm. There are no carrots to promote cooperation only sticks.
But China will by no means accept the "theft" of a Chinese technology company, and it has plenty of ways to respond if the administration carries out its planned smash and grab.
譯文：
美國政府必會(huì)為圍獵TikTok付出應(yīng)有代價(jià)
周五，白宮宣稱要在美國禁掉字節(jié)跳動(dòng)公司旗下的短視頻平臺(tái)TikTok。此后，又有報(bào)道稱白宮正在考慮讓微軟公司收購TikTok的美國業(yè)務(wù)。
美國政府與中國的貿(mào)易談判時(shí)就經(jīng)常玩這種反復(fù)無常的把戲。
要演好這套劇本，白宮要先登臺(tái)，義正詞嚴(yán)地聲稱“罰單”已箭在弦上，然后一些官員會(huì)跳出來表態(tài)說，一切尚有暫緩執(zhí)行的可能。但緊接著立刻要有美國總統(tǒng)所謂的幾個(gè)“身邊人”再跳出來放風(fēng)說，最高決策者已決意采取行動(dòng)。緊張態(tài)勢(shì)隨之再次升級(jí)。如此折騰只為美國政府的一己之私。
因此，可以預(yù)見的是，在白宮宣稱要禁掉TikTok但按兵不動(dòng)之后，必然會(huì)有如美國國務(wù)卿邁克?蓬佩奧之流跳將出來。果不其然，蓬佩奧周日一早就對(duì)媒體說：“總統(tǒng)將在未來幾天采取行動(dòng)，應(yīng)對(duì)與中共關(guān)聯(lián)的軟件給美國帶來的廣泛的安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！?/p>
盡管美國總統(tǒng)將以何種方式采取怎樣的行動(dòng)尚不得而知，但蓬佩奧的此番表態(tài)必然會(huì)加劇中國公司的憂慮。
TikTok在美國最近的經(jīng)歷表明，不論美國政府針對(duì)中國公司的指控多么不切實(shí)際，只要它們還是中國企業(yè)，這些公司就會(huì)被貼上“紅色威脅”的標(biāo)簽。此刻字節(jié)跳動(dòng)公司正在爭取“最好的結(jié)果”，但美國政府的種種表態(tài)無不在暗示這家企業(yè)：把TikTok的美國業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)讓給微軟或許是更合適的選擇。如是，蓬佩奧周日的表態(tài)無異于是在向美國潛在的收購者發(fā)出邀請(qǐng)，鼓勵(lì)它們?nèi)⒓右淮喂俜秸J(rèn)可的對(duì)中國技術(shù)的“偷竊”行動(dòng)。
華盛頓認(rèn)為，北京若采取以牙還牙的報(bào)復(fù)行動(dòng)，必然會(huì)充分顧忌如此行事對(duì)外國在華投資的影響。畢竟，美國在華投資對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要性明顯大于中國在美投資對(duì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要性，況且當(dāng)下中國在美投資正在日益萎縮。
此外，強(qiáng)迫中國公司把美國業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)讓給美國企業(yè)也不會(huì)造成美國工作機(jī)會(huì)流失。
其實(shí)，美國政府對(duì)中國高科技企業(yè)的霸凌主要源自兩點(diǎn)。一方面，數(shù)據(jù)越來越成為新的財(cái)富源頭。另一方面就是以“美國優(yōu)先”為前提的零和博弈的戰(zhàn)略思維。當(dāng)下，國家間競爭越來越體現(xiàn)為國家間收集和應(yīng)用數(shù)據(jù)的能力的比拼。至少在美國政府看來，就技術(shù)范疇而言，國家圍繞數(shù)據(jù)的競爭本質(zhì)上就是一個(gè)非此即彼的抉擇：要么束手就擒，要么決一死戰(zhàn)。不需要胡蘿卜去促成什么合作，只要揮舞大棒就足夠了。
但中國絕對(duì)不會(huì)接受美國對(duì)中國技術(shù)企業(yè)的“圍獵”。如果美國政府執(zhí)意要玩兒“砸了就搶”那一套，中國將有很多辦法讓美國為自己的行為負(fù)責(zé)到底。
